Tuesday, September 30, 2008

Climate Change 3: Planning for "Positive Settlement Choices"

(originally published in The Island Word, October 2008)

by hans peter meyer

"I'm pretty positive about the future... but we need to have the conversations in our communities [that will generate] the kind of mobilization we had in WWII. [This] is what we're going to need now."
Bruce Sampson, Former VP Sustainability, BC Hydro

Extreme storm events in recent winters have brought the cost of climate change home to a number of BC communities and households. The insurance industry is bracing itself for higher costs associated with claims related to climate change, and the anticipated hikes in premiums will hit all of us who own or rent homes and business properties. In a sobering essay on the need for planning models that will help us be effective in our efforts to do more than simply push cash at the problem, UBC's Patrick Condon cites a 2007 British Treasury Department review on the "Economics of Climate Change." The report warns that the financial "costs of correcting this problem were affordable in the short term, but if nothing was done soon, the coming global economic calamity would make the depression of the 1930s look like a period of great luxury."

The science on climactic change suggests that the single most effective step BC communities can take in the face of this threat is to enhance the resilience of our human communities. We do this by conserving, protecting, and rehabilitating the ecological systems in our regions. Conservation, however, only stems the tide. We need also to get at the source of the emissions that our conserved forests and fields are so effective at storing. The problem is that we have an approach to land use and development that makes this almost impossible: approximately 25% of Canada's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions come from auto exhaust, says Condon, "and this amount is growing." We've grown our communities on the basis of cheap, single occupancy vehicle (SOV) transportation. Sprawling rural and suburban growth has put us in a bind where we it's hard to rationalize public transit, or other service efficiencies, and are now faced with a huge costs as we continue to build roads and bridges to facilitate ever more SOVs. What we need, says Condon, is a "more carbon-efficient relationship between transportation and land use..." 

In BC, the people who control the shape of growth are local government officials, civic staff like planners and engineers, and developers. We need, as former BC Hydro VP of Sustainability Bruce Sampson put it, to have conversations at a community level that lead to a general mobilization. We need our elected leaders and our municipal staff -- and those of us who own and develop land -- to seriously look at policies and practices that will address our climate change challenges. Patrick Condon, whose work on sustainable planning has helped make Vancouver an international focal point for these kinds of ideas and practical approaches, suggests looking at our cities and towns as "Machine[s] for Carbon Mitigation" – human-built constructs "capable of extensive adaptation for GHG reduction." 

The value of homes, businesses, and recreational properties in BC is an important part of our current prosperity. Sustaining and protecting these values is in the interest of the real estate industry, but also in the interest of individual homeowners, and certainly of local government which is charged, at least indirectly, with providing a policy and regulatory framework to sustain community land and economic values. In his Hot Properties, a report on the impact of climate change on real estate values and the industry, author Nicholas Heap makes several recommendations to planners and regulators. They are consistent with Condon's call for a reimagining of our communities as more "carbon-efficient" and more resilient to climactic change. A partial list includes:

• ensuring that zoning and development guidelines adequately protect residents and local development against identified vulnerabilities to global warming – and the municipality itself from liability [emphasis added - hpm] – when planning or permitting new development, installinng infrastruture or approving retrofits to existing developments;

• recognizing the influence of urban form over greenhouse gas emissions, and implement policies that result in reduced emissions per capita over time.

From these first steps a series of policies would emerge, including general principles like, but not be limited to:

• intensification of town centres by promoting mixed use development;

• reinvestment along empty corridors and brownfields and redevelopment of strip mall type roads;

• promotion of regional planning, alternatives to SOV transportation; and

• protection of existing compact residential development.

Taking these steps now, or having taken them in the past, is helping make a number of cities and towns more carbon-efficient. Sampson referred to a willingness to embrace certain kinds of risk -- not the risk of wishing climate change away, but of trying out new planning and engineering tools that are being developed, even implemented in other parts of the world. As we wean ourselves from the "old business-as-usual" and experiment with new approaches, Condon imagines "[s]treet infrastructure reconceptualized to provide a host of unprecedented ecological and transportation services.…[including] storm water management, ground source heating and cooling, and urban heat island mitigation. Streets might be reconceived for bicycles and pedestrians only, while rooftops cold be converted for 'green roof' community food production and local jobs." Some of this is already happening in North American cities desperate to make changes in dysfunctional transportation and urban design.

Condon is not sanguine about the challenge facing towns and cities, or any of us who live with everyday reality of our carbon-inefficient land use and transportation choices. Nevertheless, a "dramatic reimagining of the city," he suggests, "may be the only one with sufficient capacity to project the 80 percent reduction in aggregate CO2 production that most experts agree would be required by 2050." 

Condon, and colleagues at UBC and across North America, Europe, and Asia, have been developing a host of tools as part of a general reimagining of our relationship to the land base that we all depend on -- driven by the prospect of economic, social, and environmental chaos precipated by climate change. In themselves, the tools are only part of answer. They range from "smart growth" development principles to "design with nature" alternatives to big pipe engineering to "green building." They include technologies and approaches that reduce pollution and taxes, increase civic interaction and recreation/health. Taken together they represent a shift in how we see ourselves in relation to the land.

The benefits of this shift is more than forestalling the kind of threat forecast by the British Treasury report. As a recent speaker at Victoria's 2008 Gaining Ground conference put it, becoming wiser in our use of land has many benefits, including:

• more mobility choices (including less congestion if we are willing to question the supremacy of the SOV);

• more amenities (higher densities can mean more efficient taxation leading to more choices for recreation and services, the potential for area-wide heating/cooling systems and transportation systems, etc);

• better design qualities leading to higher quality, healthier buildings and neighbourhoods;

• more money in our pockets as we spend less on roads and bridges, as we have more practicable opportunities for affordable housing, and lowered health care costs because we walk more, breathe cleaner air, etc.

Gaining Ground 2008 was an excellent opportunity for elected officials, local government planners and engineers, and those wishing to be on the cutting edge of real estate and land development to see and hear how communities are responding positively to the challenges of climate change. Historically, growth in BC communities has been at the expense of social and environmental qualities. With the kind of "reimagining" of land use and development proposed by Condon, with the kinds of implementation of existing planning tools and knowledge showcased in communities around the world, we are beginning to see examples of how growth can foster positive settlement solutions. In BC, growth and our current attractiveness to the world presents us with an opportunity. As the west coast Village of Ucluelet is showing us, it is possible to reach beyond accepted wisdom, to take the risk of new approaches, and begin to knit a new business-as-usual as we integrate our need for housing and economic development with the natural ecosystems that support our quality life on the planet.


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©hanspetermeyer.ca / 2008

Monday, September 15, 2008

Climate Change 2: Re-Valuing Natural Systems for a "New Business as Usual"

by hans peter meyer

"When natural waste treatment provided by wetlands, grasslands, and forests has been eliminated by their conversion into urban areas, communities can construct water and waste treatment facilities. But is substitution of other forms of capital for natural in society's interest?"
Nancy Olewiler, The Value of Natural Capital in Settled Areas of Canada, 2004

Over the past few months I've had the opportunity to do some research and writing on climte change and how this is going affect real estate values and land uses in BC. This is the second of three pieces I've put together a synopsis of what I've found. It's important, given the high value our mid-southern Vancouver Island communities place on the development and real estate industry, to look at climate change through this lens. It is, after all, our "one big idea" for sustaining household incomes and civic budgets after we've fumbled with our natural resource industries.

Several years ago the BC Real Estate Association embraced a "Quality of Life" (QoL) approach. Yes, the optics are good. But the industry also understands that communities with a higher-than-average quality of life are attractive to home buyers and investment.

That's good news for any of us who own homes or businesses in the southern part of BC. Relative to much of the country -- and most of the world -- we enjoy the benefits of a host of QoL assets: economic, social, and political stability, attractive and accessible environments, and moderate climate. The bad news is that some of our assets are being eroded by climate change.

As I mentioned in a previous column, our "old business as usual" has provided a fairly healthy QoL, reflected in relatively strong real estate market values. But the model is starting to break down.

Economist Nancy Olewiler is not alone when she suggests that the breakdown is due poor accounting practices. "No company would stay in business long if its management did not know how much product was being produced, how much it cost to produce it, or the market prices
for the product. Why," Olewiler asks, "should we treat our natural capital – capital that sustains life on the planet – any differently?" Taking natural systems for granted, we have failed to see them as assets to be assessed, invested in, treated as profoundly valuable to human communities.

Olewiler is one of several researchers making a strong business case for the re-valuation of these systems. Not only as supportive of our existing QoL, but as effective tools for mitigating the effects of climate change. Their work begins the accounting and re-valuation process: identifying and quantifying environmental services that the land base provides for human and non-human life. A partial list of these services includes:
• Improving the quality of surface and groundwater;
• Decreasing water and waste treatment costs;
• Stormwater management and flood mitigation;
• Increasing recreational opportunities;
• Providing aesthetic values;
• Decreasing net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions;
• Improving air quality.

Some of the metrics are already being done and we have approximate values for services provided by natural systems. A few examples include:
• Current estimates suggest that intact oceanic and land-based ecosystems have the capacity to absorb between 50-60% of human-created greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions;
• BC forests play a vital role in storing carbon (it takes approximately 20 years for a newly planted forest to be a net carbon sink; coastal forests peak their carbon intake between 30-120 years of age, but continue to provide a net carbon storage benefit well into 400-500 years of age);
• The waste services of lower Fraser Valley wetlands are estimated at approximately "$230 million per year in foregone treatment costs alone, and their value is many times higher if the
infrastructure capital costs are added."

We can always, as Olewiler says, replace a disrupted a wetland with an engineered water and waste treatment system. But this is probably a poor exchange, given the other services a wetland may give the community. Using that kind of "old business as usual" approach will eventually rob our communities of the QoL assets the wetland originally provided.

The impact of our "old-business-as-usual" approach, like extreme weather events and gradual and/or chaotic climate change, may not effect market values or homeowner equity immediately. The longer-term chill most likely will. Globally, the insurance industry is responding to the bottom-line impact of these phenomena. Coastal BC's recent experience with two 1-in-200-year storms within 18 months (2003-2005) cost millions of dollars. These costs are driving the insurance industry to take a "new business as usual" approach. Without adequate responses to climate change from government (ie. regulations regarding where and how development and building takes place, investments in "hardening" of protective systems), the industry is saying some homeowners and businesses may find themselves unable to afford the cost of insurance.

Climate change is forcing a re-thinking of our business assumptions at many levels: risk assessment, adaptation strategies, mitigation strategies -- and an increased appreciation of the value to our communities of healthy ecological systems. Climate change scenarios indicate that when faced with stresses, intact ecosystems are the most resilient. Carbon sequestration research tells us that these ecosystems are already our best tool in our kit when dealing with
climate change. Maintaining the integrity of these ecosystems -- through investment in conservation and rehabilitation -- is vital for human QoL. The business case, motivated in part by the costs of the "old business as usual" approach, for moving aggressively in this direction is growing. Concurrently, we need to be developing practices in business, government, and even in our households that include an accounting for natural systems.

The bottom line? If we are serious about sustaining quality of life in our neighbourhoods and communities, we need to revalue, account for, and husband our "natural capital." And we need to do it quickly.

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This column was originally published in The Island Word, September 2008.

(c) hanspetermeyer.ca / 2008